The basis for the Stock Strategist™ is an entirely new approach to viewing the stock market, that is, from a thermodynamic standpoint. In thermodynamics, the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution describes the relationship between the absolute temperature of a gas and the percentage of molecules that will have speeds within specified limits. This relationship works both ways: given a distribution of molecular speeds you can determine the temperature of a gas, and given the temperature of a gas you can determine the molecular speed distribution. We utilize an analogous concept in determining the effective temperature of the stock market. We call this value the MTI (Market Timing Indicator), although the acronym might also be considered to stand for "Market Temperature Indicator". Instead of gas molecules we consider an ensemble of over 8500 stocks and ETFs; instead of looking at the number of gas molecules within specified speed ranges we consider the distribution of "long" holdings within a spectrum of specially designed stock portfolios (with unusual buy and sell criteria). In a way, this is Technical Analysis ... but firmly rooted in the fundamental forces that underlie the stock market.
Schulenberg and Associates (since 1981): Originators of the Thermodynamic Approach to Stock Market Timing and the Stock Strategist™ Newsletter
Schulenberg and Associates, Inc. is a company that specializes in innovative software products and solutions, and with a special emphasis on the design of mathematical algorithms and linguistics software . Our experience with stock market timing and equity modeling began in 1987 when we added neural network capabilities to our EDES™ (Empirical Data Expert System) program. Development of our Stock Strategist ™ software began in 2000, and we started publishing our daily Newsletter and market timing reports in October 2004. On 9/27/06 we began utilizing TimerTrac™ to conduct independent verification of our stock market signals. We are now also being tracked by Collective2™. At the present time we have closed our Newsletter to new subscriptions.
Auto-Trading: Our Signals may be Auto-Traded through Collective2
Our flagship IWM signal (and others) may be monitored, and auto-traded through our affiliate site. We are now tracking five different systems that are based upon our signals (including our flagship IWM signal) on this affiliate web site. The actual performance of the IWM signal since 9/4/08 can be seen here, but with collective2.com we have had to start tracking from scratch (i.e., from 12/8/10). Note that the "Schulenberg IRA" system is intended for use in retirement accounts; it utilizes the IWM signal and performs the cash management necessary for tax-deferred non-margined accounts like IRAs. It is intended to provide the largest possible gains commensurate with a reasonable degree of risk.
Schulenberg Stock Strategist™ (SSS) "Maxwell-Boltzmann" Stock Market Timing Models
Signal Verification (Tracking by TimerTrac™)
We utilize Timertrac™ to monitor the actual signal performance of our IWM (and also QQQQ, SPY, DIA, MDY, and SMH) signal; we do not submit our other 133 stock/ETF signals for daily tracking. Timertrac™ is an independent market timing signal certification service that provides direct comparisons of the actual performance of hundreds of market timing signals. The tracking of our IWM signal began on 9/4/08. In addition, each week we submit a market analysis to TimerTrac for incoporation into their Broadcast emails. If you would like to receive their bi-weekly Broadcast emails, then you should contact TimerTrac at http://www.timertrac.com; it's free, and it summarizes the current thinking of many market timing organizations -- not just us.
If you click on the following link you can see the actual performance of our flagship signal (IWM) since 9/4/08. We generate 139 other equity signals, but we have found that IWM (the Russell 2000) has the best overall trading characteristics: (1) high potential annual gains, (2) extremely good liquidity (easy fills and exits), and (3) is highly amenable to accurate modeling. Moreover, the 2x companion ETFs, UWM and TWM, are also highly liquid and may be used to magnify gains and accomplish shorting.
Strategist Newsletter™ Subscriptions
Note: At the present time we are not accepting any new subscriptions.
A subscription to the Strategist Newsletter™ provides a multitude of daily reports that address a full range of investment strategies:
(1) Voted Signals™ for IWM and 139 other major stocks and ETFs. The Voted Signals are generated using: (a) the Market Timing Indicator (MTI) calculated by our Preprocessor, (b) the Grail System models, and (c) voting logic that considers all related signals before generating a final signal. Our IWM timing signal is one of our most accurate, and certainly our most popular signal.
(2) Differential Signals that support partially-hedged or fully-hedged low-risk trading by identifying pairs of ETFs that are diverging in price. One ETF will be held Long while the other is Shorted, thus dramatically reducing drawdowns and risk. An especially important differential signal is QQQQ vs. DIA (the 'techs' versus the Dow, and another is IWM vs. SPY (the Russell 2000 versus the S&P 500).
(3) Day Trading signals for 1800 stocks and ETFs. These daily 'picks' are intended to be bought (or Shorted) at the market Open, and sold (or Covered) at the market Close. Our Generalized Candlestick technique is used to filter out trades that have a low probability for success.
(4) Signals and equity ratios for Trading Pairs. Trading Pairs are pairs of ETFs (stocks will be added soon) that are ideal for trading simultaneously because they provide a natural 'hedging' effect. Such pairs may be traded Long/Long, Short/Short, or Long/Short, and the equity ratios that are given have been back-tested to produce the highest G/d ratio (Annualized Gain divided by Maximum Drawdown).
(5) Prediction Tables that help predict the Close based upon Open conditions. The Market Open Signature (MOS), together with the MTI (Market Timing Indicator) value, are used to generate the probabilities that key ETFs will close higher than the Open -- or higher than the preceding day's Close.
(6) Mutual Fund daily buy/hold/sell signals for over 1,000 mutual funds. Our mutual fund signals are constructed by 'decomposing' each fund into a weighted sum of 5 'equivalent' ETFs, and then using our ETF timing signals to predict the near-term outlook of the fund as a whole.