========================================================================
FORECAST Report 4: New Signals of Interest (as of the Close on 02/03/12)
========================================================================
This Report consists of 6 subreports:
4.1 Possible Trades for Next Market Day
This subreport lists all of our 'picks' for the next trading day,
broken down into 7 categories based upon our Signal Type.
4.2 New Signal Type 1 PAIRS (Sorted by Portfolio G/d Value)
This subreport takes all of the Signal Type 1 equities from subreport
4.1 and groups them into Trading Pairs, sorted by the back-tested value
for the G/d parameter (annualized Gain divided by maximum drawdown) that
characterizes the Trading Pair.
4.3 Daily Results for Trades (Committed Based on QQQQ Signal)
This subreport shows the actual gains and losses for the trades identified
on the previous day's 4.1 subreport. This shows us how well our 'picks'
actually performed TODAY.
4.4 Daily Results for Signal Type 1 PAIRS Trades
This subreport shows the actual gains and losses for the Trading Pairs
identified on the previous day's 4.2 subreport. This shows us how well
our Trading Pair 'picks' actually performed TODAY.
4.5 Global Statistics for All Trades Grouped by Signal Types
This subreport shows the actual gains and losses for our 'picks' since
our tracking began on 7/17/09. Statistics are maintained separately
for each Signal Type. In other words, this subreport is essentially a
synopsis of all of the previous 4.3 subreports since the inception of
tracking.
4.6 Global Statistics for All Pairs Trades Grouped by G/d Range
This subreport shows the actual gains and losses for our Signal Type 1
Trading Pairs since our tracking began on 7/17/09. All Trading Pairs
are derived from our highly accurate Type 1 signals, and statistics
are maintained for Long-only pairs (BUY/BUY), Short-only pairs (SHORT/
SHORT), and Hedged pairs (BUY/SHORT or SHORT/BUY). For each category
separate statistics are shown for key G/d ranges.
Subreport 4.1:
==============
The following lines have been extracted from the SELECTOR.HTM Report, and
they show Signals that may represent profitable trading opportunities for
the next market day.
This Report is based upon looking for agreement between our 3 fundamental
types of signals:
(1) VoteS = Voted Signals (see ALLVOTES.TXT): Our short-term signals
(2) GrailS = Grail System Signals: Our intermediate-term signals
(3) Preprocessor Signals (see NEWPICKS.TXT): Our longer-term signals
If the Preprocessor's acquisition date field is followed by a '+++', this means
that the Preprocessor has just bought (or Shorted) the equity.
You should closely examine all equities listed here, and you should Chart them
and look for corroborating technical patterns before making trades. The basic
idea behind this report is to try to identify possible trades that may have
the most profit potential, but this should be confirmed by Charting.
If the signal in the VoteS column is shown in parentheses, then there is no
Voted Signal for the equity, and instead the 'Consensus' signal is shown. The
Consensus Signal will be the Preprocessor's signal for new trades (marked by
'+++' following the acquisition date field), and it will be the Grail System
signal otherwise.
Key:
====
T The TYPE of the "pick":
1 --> Voted Signal is in agreement with the Grail System signal and
the Preprocessor signal.
2 --> Voted Signal is in agreement with the Grail System signal, but
is NOT confirmed by the Preprocessor signal.
3 --> Voted Signal is in agreement with the Preprocessor signal, but
is NOT confirmed by the Grail System signal.
4 --> Voted Signal is NOT confirmed by either the Grail System signal
or the Preprocesor signal.
5 --> Preprocessor "New Pick" that is confirmed by the Grail System
signal.
6 --> Preprocessor "New Pick" that is unconfirmed.
7 --> Preprocessor Signal (BUY) that is confirmed by the Grail System.
G/d The Ratio of the 'back-tested' annualized gain (G) to the 'back-tested'
maximum drawdown (d). Prospective trades will larger G/d values 'should'
be better trades. This is not a guarantee, however. If an equity doesn't
like 'healthy' at the market Open, it would be better to pick an alternate
that looks better, even if its back-tested G/d value is lower.
Long Qual This is an experimental value, and it comes out of our Generalized
Candlestick neural network. It is desirable to have a large positive
number if we have a BUY, and a large negative number if we have a
SHORT.
4.1 Possible Trades for Next Market Day
========================================
Note: Our procedure is to only act on BUY signals if our QQQQ Voted Signal is
a BUY, and to SHORT only if the QQQQ signal had been a SHORT. We suggest that
no trading be done if the QQQQ signal is Cash ($$$$).
The candidate trades are grouped by their Signal Type (1, 2, 3, ... 7), and
within each Signal Type grouping, stocks are ordered by increasing G/d value,
thus suggesting the best theoretical ranking. Remember, however, that what is
more important is how the equity 'looks' at the Open; don't blindly trade based
strictly on the G/d value.
*** NOTE 1: The "VoteS" column thus contains the official signal. If the value
is NOT in parentheses then it is the actual Voted Signal -- and we NEVER go
against this signal. If the value is in parentheses, e.g., (BUY), then there
is no Voted Signal available; instead, this is the Consensus signal between
the Grail System models and the Preprocessor. So, in all cases, the VoteS
column defines the direction of the trade.
*** NOTE 2: We gather trading statistics assuming that Protective Stops are
used to prevent unnecessary losses. The Stop values used are:
Long -3.00% (We sell the equity if it drops below the Open price by more than
this value)
Short +3.00% (We cover the Short if the price rises above the Open price by
more than this value)
*** NOTE 3: Within Signal Types 1-4, if the Preprocessor signal has the '+++'
(New Trade) flag, then that equity might be a better trade than those that
have not just been picked up by the Preprocessor.
Long
T Eqty G/d VoteS GrailS Preprocessor Signal Qual Company Name
= ==== ==== ===== ====== ============================== ===== ================================
1 QQQQ 47.1 BUY BUY (BUY 112811 13.46%) 2.30 PowerShares QQQTrust Ser 1
1 AAPL 40.9 BUY BUY (BUY 102611 12.79%) 2.60 Apple Inc
1 CTXS 39.2 BUY BUY (BUY 020212 1.15%) 1.30 Citrix Systems Inc
1 IWM 38.4 BUY BUY (BUY 082411 18.50%) 3.91 iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
1 SPY 31.7 BUY BUY (BUY 091211 14.94%) 2.88 SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF
1 MDY 30.7 BUY BUY (BUY 112811 15.00%) 3.97 SPDRs S&P Midcap Trust Series ET
1 MRVL 26.3 BUY BUY (BUY 112811 23.44%) 4.99 Marvell Technology Group
1 QCOM 25.5 BUY BUY (BUY 072811 12.26%) 2.52 Qualcomm Inc
1 ATVI 21.8 BUY BUY (BUY 121511 2.93%) 5.38 Activision Blizzard` Inc
1 GILD 16.8 BUY BUY (BUY 122111 40.84%) 2.00 Gilead Sciences Inc
1 TNA 4.9 BUY BUY (BUY 122011 44.36%) 5.13 Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Share
1 BGU 2.5 BUY BUY (BUY 121511 33.98%) -2.03 Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Share
2 AKAM 56.2 BUY BUY (short? ) -0.72 Akamai Technologies Inc
2 JOY 44.7 BUY BUY (short? ) 5.89 Joy Global Inc
2 IYW 39.4 BUY BUY (short? ) 2.13 iShares Dow Jones US Technology
2 WFC 36.9 BUY BUY (short? ) 5.73 Wells Fargo & Company
2 UYG 36.2 BUY BUY (short? ) 5.12 ProShares Ultra Financials
2 IBB 33.2 BUY BUY (short? ) 5.12 iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Ind
2 C 32.5 BUY BUY (short? ) 5.61 Citigroup
2 MAT 32.3 BUY BUY (short? ) 2.01 Mattel Inc
2 SMH 31.8 BUY BUY (short? ) 2.58 HOLDRS Semiconductor ETF
2 AMZN 31.7 BUY BUY (short? ) 3.12 Amazon.Com Inc
2 INFY 30.8 BUY BUY (short? ) -2.26 Infosys Technologies Limited ADS
2 RF 30.3 BUY BUY (short? ) 0.67 Regions Financial Corp
2 IWZ 28.5 BUY BUY (short? ) 5.21 iShares Russell 3000 Growth Inde
2 CSCO 28.3 BUY BUY (short? ) 2.02 Cisco Systems Inc
2 PCAR 28.2 BUY BUY (short? ) 5.17 Paccar Inc
2 IYY 27.8 BUY BUY (short? ) 3.69 iShares Dow Jones US Total Marke
2 VTI 26.9 BUY BUY (short? ) 2.53 Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Etf
2 XLE 25.3 BUY BUY (short? ) 3.03 SPDRs Select Sector Energy ETF
2 IWV 24.6 BUY BUY (short? ) 2.67 iShares Russell 3000 Index Fund
2 BIIB 24.1 BUY BUY (short? ) 5.16 Biogen Idec Inc
2 EXPD 24.0 BUY BUY (short? ) 1.76 Expeditors International of Wash
2 BAC 22.4 BUY BUY (short? ) 5.47 Bank Of America Corp
2 CHRW 20.2 BUY BUY (short? ) 1.55 C.H. Robinson Worldwide
2 MCD 18.3 BUY BUY (short? ) 2.00 McDonalds Corp
2 IYZ 18.2 BUY BUY (short? ) 3.27 iShares Dow Jones US Telecommuni
2 BBBY 18.1 BUY BUY (short? ) 2.47 Bed Bath & Beyond Inc
2 CVX 16.9 BUY BUY (short? ) 2.73 Chevron Corp
2 CHKP 15.0 BUY BUY (short? ) -1.63 Check Point Software Technologie
2 ERX 9.8 BUY BUY (short? ) 4.88 Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares
2 PFE 7.6 BUY BUY (short? ) 3.33 Pfizer Inc
2 FAS 5.3 BUY BUY (short? ) 0.57 Direxion Financial Bull 3x Share
3 NVDA 63.1 BUY SHORT (BUY 102111 8.80%) 4.44 NVIDIA Corporation
3 NTAP 44.3 BUY SHORT (BUY 122011 12.71%) -1.58 Netapp Inc
3 XLK 36.4 BUY SHORT (BUY 122211 9.26%) 2.29 SPDRs Select Sector Technology E
3 EBAY 25.3 BUY SHORT (BUY 122211 6.98%) 2.08 Ebay Inc
3 MCHP 22.5 BUY SHORT (BUY 121511 13.30%) 1.81 Microchip Technology Inc
3 DELL 21.4 BUY SHORT (BUY 121611 17.50%) 1.51 Dell Inc
3 CA 21.0 BUY SHORT (BUY 110211 24.09%) 5.83 CA Inc
3 SRCL 15.6 BUY SHORT (BUY 010512 12.97%) 4.72 Stericycle Inc
3 CERN 7.8 BUY SHORT (BUY 120911 5.13%) 1.74 Cerner Corp
4 AA 41.9 BUY SHORT (short? ) -1.72 Alcoa Inc
4 XLF 41.1 BUY SHORT (short? ) 2.61 SPDRs Select Sector Financial ET
4 AMAT 37.3 BUY SHORT (short? ) 2.16 Applied Materials Inc
4 IXN 37.1 BUY SHORT (short? ) 5.35 iShares S&P Global Technology Se
4 ALTR 35.0 BUY SHORT (short? ) -0.30 Altera Corp
4 GRMN 33.9 BUY SHORT (short? ) 5.79 Garmin Ltd
4 ISRG 33.8 BUY SHORT (short? ) -3.43 Intuitive Surgical Inc
4 ADBE 28.2 BUY SHORT (short? ) 0.53 Adobe Systems Inc
4 IWW 24.3 BUY SHORT (short? ) 5.39 iShares Russell 3000 Value Index
4 T 23.1 BUY SHORT (short? ) 2.52 AT&T Inc
4 AXP 21.6 BUY SHORT (short? ) -2.11 American Express Co
4 MSFT 18.2 BUY SHORT (short? ) -2.26 Microsoft Corp
4 KFT 17.7 BUY SHORT (short? ) 1.33 Kraft Foods Inc
4 LOGI 12.3 BUY SHORT (short? ) -1.94 Logitech Intl Sa Ord
4 EA 14.3 BUY SHORT (short? ) 5.91 Electronic Arts Inc
4 MMM 14.2 BUY SHORT (short? ) 2.00 3M Company
4 HSIC 13.8 BUY SHORT (short? ) -1.80 Henry Schein Inc
4 JNJ 9.4 BUY SHORT (short? ) 1.69 Johnson & Johnson
5 RCL 30.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 020312+++ 0.00%) -1.37 Royal Caribbean Cruises
5 TRMB 26.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 020312+++ 0.00%) -2.73 Trimble Navigation Ltd
5 EWU 23.5 (BUY) BUY (BUY 020312+++ 0.00%) 2.75 iShares MSCI United Kingdom Inde
5 COLM 16.1 (BUY) BUY (BUY 020312+++ 0.00%) 5.88 Columbia Sportswear Co
6 CVC (BUY) SHORT (BUY 020312+++ 0.00%) -1.50 Cablevision Systems Cl A
6 BVN (BUY) (BUY 020312+++ 0.00%) -2.27 Compania De Minas Buena
6 HL (BUY) (BUY 020312+++ 0.00%) -0.69 Hecla Mining Co
6 PWER (BUY) (BUY 020312+++ 0.00%) -3.23 Power-One Inc
7 INFA 38.4 (BUY) BUY (BUY 122011 14.13%) 1.99 Informatica Corporation
7 CLF 35.4 (BUY) BUY (BUY 020212 0.15%) 1.62 Cliffs Nat'l Resources Inc
7 IJH 34.3 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112811 15.03%) 4.83 iShares S&P MidCap 400 Index Fun
7 GLW 31.7 (BUY) BUY (BUY 120911 0.00%) 1.62 Corning Inc
7 IWP 29.4 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112811 13.57%) 5.42 iShares Russell MidCap Growth In
7 IVW 29.1 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121611 8.40%) 3.75 iShares S&P 500/Barra Growth Ind
7 IWS 28.6 (BUY) BUY (BUY 120911 9.59%) 3.78 iShares Russell MidCap Value Ind
7 TIBX 28.6 (BUY) BUY (BUY 011112 15.85%) 5.74 Tibco Software Inc
7 ING 27.6 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121511 44.28%) 2.33 ING Group N.V.
7 OTEX 27.6 (BUY) BUY (BUY 020212 -0.16%) 5.98 Open Text Cp
7 HON 26.0 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121511 14.91%) 5.00 Honeywell International
7 IEV 25.7 (BUY) BUY (BUY 120911 9.38%) 5.43 iShares S&P Europe 350 Index Fun
7 OVTI 25.1 (BUY) BUY (BUY 010512 25.36%) 5.88 Omnivision Technologies
7 CPWR 24.8 (BUY) BUY (BUY 011112 -2.01%) 0.27 Compuware Corp
7 EP 24.3 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121611 8.33%) 2.94 El Paso Corp
7 M 24.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121411 15.11%) 5.06 Macy's Inc
7 WAT 24.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 122011 21.01%) 2.57 Waters Corp
7 HSC 23.9 (BUY) BUY (BUY 012712 5.77%) -3.67 Harsco Corp
7 GT 23.3 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121511 1.32%) 5.00 Goodyear Tire&Rubber Co
7 BMC 22.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 020212 -1.48%) -1.97 Bmc Software Inc
7 PCP 21.8 (BUY) BUY (BUY 101111 4.18%) -0.77 Precision Castparts Corp
7 MEOH 20.9 (BUY) BUY (BUY 011812 4.65%) 1.41 Methanex Corporation
7 CDNS 20.6 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121611 12.79%) -3.59 Cadence Design Systems
7 ELP 20.6 (BUY) BUY (BUY 102111 22.79%) 2.35 Companhia Paranaense De
7 XLI 20.5 (BUY) BUY (BUY 082411 19.85%) 2.69 SPDRs Select Sector Industrial E
7 CSGP 20.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 082311 21.01%) -1.68 Costar Group Inc
7 NOV 19.9 (BUY) BUY (BUY 122011 21.92%) -3.94 National Oilwell Varco Inc
7 SPYG 19.6 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112911 7.14%) 5.42 SPDR S&P 500 Growth ETF
7 BTU 18.8 (BUY) BUY (BUY 122011 14.39%) 3.28 Peabody Energy
7 DDS 18.5 (BUY) BUY (BUY 020212 4.62%) 2.71 Dillard's Inc
7 MKSI 18.1 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112811 31.25%) -1.61 Mks Instruments Inc
7 MU 18.1 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112811 41.21%) -1.53 Micron Technology Inc
7 MOGA 18.0 (BUY) BUY (BUY 013112 4.46%) 2.99 Moog Inc
7 OIH 17.8 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121611 16.84%) 5.36 HOLDRS Oil Service ETF
7 HLX 16.7 (BUY) BUY (BUY 012012 12.18%) -3.31 Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc
7 WHR 16.5 (BUY) BUY (BUY 020112 11.17%) -3.81 Whirlpool Corp
7 GPS 16.4 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121511 17.10%) 4.58 Gap Inc
7 AMCC 16.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112811 12.68%) -1.99 Applied Micro Circuits
7 EZU 16.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 110211 2.50%) 0.74 iShares MSCI EMU Index Fund ETF
7 BBOX 15.9 (BUY) BUY (BUY 090711 25.69%) 2.01 Black Box Corp
7 RBC 15.8 (BUY) BUY (BUY 111111 21.15%) 0.27 Regal-Beloit Corp
7 UWM 15.4 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112811 40.69%) -1.89 ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 ETF
7 EWC 15.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 122011 11.98%) 5.39 iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund E
7 EWW 15.1 (BUY) BUY (BUY 111811 15.81%) 5.78 iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund E
7 VCLK 15.1 (BUY) BUY (BUY 120211 15.05%) -1.65 Valueclick Inc
7 GCO 14.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 012712 2.30%) 2.11 Genesco Inc
7 HOV 14.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 010612 61.14%) -3.94 Hovnanian Enterprises A
7 SCHW 14.0 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112511 16.35%) 5.33 Charles Schwab Corp
7 CBT 12.8 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121511 33.57%) -3.06 Cabot Corp
7 BPFH 12.7 (BUY) BUY (BUY 013012 11.36%) 3.30 Boston Private Fincl Hld
7 IYR 12.4 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112511 16.54%) 3.22 iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate
7 XLP 12.0 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112211 6.91%) 1.61 SPDRs Select Sector Consumer Sta
7 EWP 11.8 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112911 -0.61%) 5.27 iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund ET
7 IR 11.2 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121511 20.18%) 5.83 Ingersoll-rand Ltd Cl A
7 IYG 11.1 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112511 22.82%) 5.59 iShares Dow Jones US Financial S
7 IWB 10.5 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112911 9.46%) 3.01 iShares Russell 1000 Index Fund
7 SFY 10.4 (BUY) BUY (BUY 121511 16.54%) 5.34 Swift Energy Co
7 ELON 9.4 (BUY) BUY (BUY 112811 19.56%) 4.84 Echelon Corporation
4.2 New Signal Type 1 PAIRS (Sorted by Portfolio G/d Value)
============================================================
The following Table shows all pairs of Signal Type 1 equities (fully confirmed
Voted Signals), and they are sorted in decreasing order of 'back-tested' G/d
(Annualized Gain% divided by Maximum Drawdown) value. The back-tested Annualized
Gain figure is shown also, although in actual trading this level of performance
will almost always be unattainable. Also bear in mind that the back-tested
figures were derived by assuming that trades were always made at the market
Open; in our situation, we assume that the positions are exited at the
market Close -- removing the uncertainty and risk involved with holding
equities overnight.
This Table is being limited to Signal Type 1 PAIRS because this is our most
accurate timing signal, and this also helps keep the length of the Table from
growing excessively long; at times there might still be several hundred entries
in the Table. We are currently investigating the appropriateness of chopping
the Table off once the G/d values go below a prescribed threshhold, e.g., 30 or
40.
Remember that properly chosen pairs of equities will have a combined (portfolio)
drawdown that is LESS than the drawdown of either equity alone. The G/d value
for the portfolio (that is, both equities traded together in equal dollar
amounts), will similarly be better than the G/d values of the two equities
would suggest. This is because drawdowns tend to add like electrical resistances
in parallel (1/R = 1/R1 + 1/R2). Of course, back-tested information can only
serve as a general guide; in any specific situation, the stock market will do
whatever it wants to do.
Pairs selected from near the top of the list 'might' be expected to be more
profitable, either having potentially larger gains -- or lower than average draw-
downs. If it is desired to trade three equities, then simply find two high-ranked
pairs that have one equity in common; to select four equities, simply pick two
high-ranked pairs that have no common equity, etc.
Note that the following Table is broken up into three subtables: (1) LONG Pairs,
(2) Hedged Pairs, and (3) SHORT Pairs. LONG Pairs have BUY signals for both
equities, while SHORT Pairs have SHORT signals for both equities. The HEDGED
Pairs will have one equity shown as a BUY, while the other one is a SHORT.
In general, we would prefer LONG Pairs if the market is moving upward (e.g.,
QQQQ signal is a BUY), SHORT Pairs if the market is moving downward (e.g.,
QQQQ Signal is a SHORT), and HEDGED Pairs when the market is choppy (e.g.,
QQQQ Signal is CASH).
*** IMPORTANT NOTE: In trading PAIRs, or more than two of these equities, the
same rules apply about Protective Stops; we currently set Stops for Longs with
the trigger level set at -3.0% below the Open (purchase) price, and our Short
Stops are similarly set at +3.0% above the Open (shorting) price.
Back-Tested
================
Equity Pair Signals G/d Ann.Gain
=========== =========== ====== ========
(1) === LONG Pairs: BUY/BUY ===
AAPL /TNA BUY /BUY 67.21 973.31%
MRVL /TNA BUY /BUY 64.26 1055.95%
CTXS /TNA BUY /BUY 63.61 986.62%
BGU /TNA BUY /BUY 55.91 946.03%
ATVI /TNA BUY /BUY 51.60 870.61%
AAPL /CTXS BUY /BUY 51.06 572.02%
CTXS /IWM BUY /BUY 50.58 449.01%
BGU /MRVL BUY /BUY 50.46 610.10%
AAPL /MRVL BUY /BUY 49.95 613.64%
BGU /CTXS BUY /BUY 49.60 568.24%
CTXS /SPY BUY /BUY 49.52 351.67%
AAPL /IWM BUY /BUY 49.07 441.48%
CTXS /QQQQ BUY /BUY 47.84 385.92%
AAPL /BGU BUY /BUY 46.81 558.55%
CTXS /MDY BUY /BUY 46.79 345.73%
AAPL /MDY BUY /BUY 46.31 339.72%
CTXS /MRVL BUY /BUY 45.95 623.62%
AAPL /QQQQ BUY /BUY 45.86 379.45%
MDY /QQQQ BUY /BUY 45.77 217.83%
QCOM /TNA BUY /BUY 45.67 752.58%
AAPL /ATVI BUY /BUY 45.29 497.98%
IWM /TNA BUY /BUY 45.24 765.56%
QQQQ /TNA BUY /BUY 44.32 672.84%
MDY /TNA BUY /BUY 43.46 608.39%
BGU /IWM BUY /BUY 42.80 436.83%
AAPL /SPY BUY /BUY 42.42 345.29%
BGU /QQQQ BUY /BUY 41.72 376.36%
IWM /QQQQ BUY /BUY 41.37 291.69%
IWM /MDY BUY /BUY 40.90 258.75%
AAPL /QCOM BUY /BUY 40.21 425.25%
CTXS /QCOM BUY /BUY 39.84 431.78%
ATVI /CTXS BUY /BUY 39.48 505.47%
SPY /TNA BUY /BUY 39.25 615.26%
IWM /QCOM BUY /BUY 39.21 329.89%
QQQQ /SPY BUY /BUY 38.69 221.71%
GILD /TNA BUY /BUY 38.68 673.79%
IWM /MRVL BUY /BUY 37.90 483.90%
BGU /SPY BUY /BUY 36.27 341.42%
CTXS /GILD BUY /BUY 36.14 381.65%
MDY /SPY BUY /BUY 35.85 194.87%
QCOM /QQQQ BUY /BUY 35.83 280.24%
ATVI /IWM BUY /BUY 35.64 389.01%
ATVI /MRVL BUY /BUY 35.54 544.85%
ATVI /BGU BUY /BUY 35.39 494.00%
AAPL /GILD BUY /BUY 35.21 374.87%
ATVI /QCOM BUY /BUY 34.86 374.19%
IWM /SPY BUY /BUY 34.84 263.26%
MDY /QCOM BUY /BUY 34.41 248.59%
MRVL /QCOM BUY /BUY 34.22 465.44%
MRVL /QQQQ BUY /BUY 33.91 416.76%
QCOM /SPY BUY /BUY 33.61 253.24%
BGU /QCOM BUY /BUY 33.49 423.10%
MRVL /SPY BUY /BUY 32.58 380.51%
BGU /GILD BUY /BUY 31.52 373.22%
MDY /MRVL BUY /BUY 31.23 374.05%
ATVI /QQQQ BUY /BUY 30.90 332.55%
BGU /MDY BUY /BUY 30.31 335.36%
ATVI /MDY BUY /BUY 29.73 296.23%
GILD /MRVL BUY /BUY 28.98 412.17%
ATVI /SPY BUY /BUY 28.76 301.66%
GILD /IWM BUY /BUY 28.31 288.83%
GILD /QQQQ BUY /BUY 27.08 244.04%
ATVI /GILD BUY /BUY 24.69 328.07%
GILD /QCOM BUY /BUY 24.48 276.55%
GILD /MDY BUY /BUY 23.68 215.30%
GILD /SPY BUY /BUY 23.28 219.52%
(2) === Hedged Pairs: BUY/SHORT or SHORT/BUY ===
*** No PAIRS found in this Category
(3) === SHORT Pairs: SHORT/SHORT ===
*** No PAIRS found in this Category
4.3 Daily Results for Trades (Committed Based on QQQQ Signal)
==============================================================
Result of Trade Signals generated on previous market day. Notice that BUYs
are only initiated if the QQQQ signal had been a BUY, and Shorts are only
initiated if the QQQQ signal had been a SHORT. No trades are attempted if
the QQQQ signal (the Voted Signal) had been Cash ($$$$).
*** NOTE: The following trades assume that Protective Stops are being used to
prevent unnecessary losses. The Stop values used are:
Long -3.00% (We sell the equity if it drops below the Open price by more than
this value)
Short +3.00% (We cover the Short if the price rises above the Open price by
more than this value)
If the Stop is 'hit' during the day, you will see a Comment to that effect on
the far right side of the trading line, and the SELL or COVER price will be
forced to the Stop value -- and not the Close price for the day.
*** The Stock/ETF "Picks" were generated on: 020212
*** The QQQQ Voted Signal was calculated as: BUY
*** "Day" Trades (Open-->Close) were made on: 020312
Type 1: Voted Signal (confirmed: Grail/Preproc)
Type 2: Voted Signal (confirmed: Grail System only)
Type 3: Voted Signal (confirmed: Preprocessor only)
Type 4: Voted Signal (unconfirmed)
Type 5: Preprocessor "New Pick" (confirmed: Grail)
Type 6: Preprocessor "New Pick" (unconfirmed)
Type 7: Grail System Signal (confirmed: Preproc)
Type: 1 TRADE: QQQQ BUY GAIN: 0.44% BUY @ 61.78 SELL @ 62.05
Type: 1 TRADE: VRSN BUY GAIN: -0.22% BUY @ 37.12 SELL @ 37.04
Type: 1 TRADE: CTXS BUY GAIN: 1.15% BUY @ 68.00 SELL @ 68.78
Type: 1 TRADE: IWM BUY GAIN: 0.58% BUY @ 82.47 SELL @ 82.95
Type: 1 TRADE: MRVL BUY GAIN: -0.66% BUY @ 16.75 SELL @ 16.64
Type: 1 TRADE: QCOM BUY GAIN: 0.11% BUY @ 60.99 SELL @ 61.06
Type: 1 TRADE: TNA BUY GAIN: 1.76% BUY @ 62.04 SELL @ 63.13
Type: 2 TRADE: RIMM BUY GAIN: -0.18% BUY @ 16.91 SELL @ 16.88
Type: 2 TRADE: IYW BUY GAIN: 0.45% BUY @ 70.75 SELL @ 71.07
Type: 2 TRADE: WFC BUY GAIN: 0.62% BUY @ 30.44 SELL @ 30.63
Type: 2 TRADE: UYG BUY GAIN: 1.53% BUY @ 54.73 SELL @ 55.57
Type: 2 TRADE: VRTX BUY GAIN: -3.00% BUY @ 37.52 SELL @ 36.39 Protective Stop at: 36.39
Type: 2 TRADE: SBUX BUY GAIN: 0.79% BUY @ 47.94 SELL @ 48.32
Type: 2 TRADE: IBB BUY GAIN: -0.15% BUY @ 120.82 SELL @ 120.64
Type: 2 TRADE: MAT BUY GAIN: 1.19% BUY @ 31.16 SELL @ 31.53
Type: 2 TRADE: SMH BUY GAIN: 0.55% BUY @ 34.43 SELL @ 34.62
Type: 2 TRADE: CAT BUY GAIN: 1.58% BUY @ 112.17 SELL @ 113.94
Type: 2 TRADE: INFY BUY GAIN: 0.25% BUY @ 56.95 SELL @ 57.09
Type: 2 TRADE: DISH BUY GAIN: 1.01% BUY @ 28.62 SELL @ 28.91
Type: 2 TRADE: RF BUY GAIN: 1.62% BUY @ 5.55 SELL @ 5.64
Type: 2 TRADE: IACI BUY GAIN: -1.46% BUY @ 46.48 SELL @ 45.80
Type: 2 TRADE: IWZ BUY GAIN: 0.49% BUY @ 51.12 SELL @ 51.37
Type: 2 TRADE: CSCO BUY GAIN: 0.65% BUY @ 19.96 SELL @ 20.09
Type: 2 TRADE: IYY BUY GAIN: 0.34% BUY @ 67.58 SELL @ 67.81
Type: 2 TRADE: MNST BUY GAIN: -0.80% BUY @ 106.56 SELL @ 105.71
Type: 2 TRADE: VTI BUY GAIN: 0.45% BUY @ 69.17 SELL @ 69.48
Type: 2 TRADE: IYJ BUY GAIN: 0.51% BUY @ 70.14 SELL @ 70.50
Type: 2 TRADE: XLE BUY GAIN: 0.46% BUY @ 72.44 SELL @ 72.77
Type: 2 TRADE: CELG BUY GAIN: -1.33% BUY @ 74.20 SELL @ 73.21
Type: 2 TRADE: IWV BUY GAIN: 0.49% BUY @ 79.73 SELL @ 80.12
Type: 2 TRADE: BIIB BUY GAIN: -0.29% BUY @ 122.24 SELL @ 121.88
Type: 2 TRADE: IYZ BUY GAIN: 0.14% BUY @ 21.95 SELL @ 21.98
Type: 2 TRADE: BBBY BUY GAIN: 1.25% BUY @ 62.37 SELL @ 63.15
Type: 2 TRADE: CVX BUY GAIN: 0.56% BUY @ 104.91 SELL @ 105.50
Type: 2 TRADE: ESRX BUY GAIN: -0.08% BUY @ 52.12 SELL @ 52.08
Type: 2 TRADE: CHKP BUY GAIN: 1.04% BUY @ 58.50 SELL @ 59.11
Type: 2 TRADE: ERX BUY GAIN: 1.80% BUY @ 51.75 SELL @ 52.68
Type: 2 TRADE: PFE BUY GAIN: 0.05% BUY @ 21.19 SELL @ 21.20
Type: 3 TRADE: NVDA BUY GAIN: 0.76% BUY @ 15.70 SELL @ 15.82
Type: 3 TRADE: YHOO BUY GAIN: -0.25% BUY @ 15.96 SELL @ 15.92
Type: 3 TRADE: NTAP BUY GAIN: 1.51% BUY @ 39.75 SELL @ 40.35
Type: 3 TRADE: XLK BUY GAIN: 0.40% BUY @ 27.61 SELL @ 27.72
Type: 3 TRADE: LRCX BUY GAIN: -0.99% BUY @ 44.63 SELL @ 44.19
Type: 3 TRADE: SPY BUY GAIN: 0.40% BUY @ 134.00 SELL @ 134.54
Type: 3 TRADE: BRCM BUY GAIN: 0.78% BUY @ 37.38 SELL @ 37.67
Type: 3 TRADE: MDY BUY GAIN: 0.30% BUY @ 176.10 SELL @ 176.63
Type: 3 TRADE: DIA BUY GAIN: 0.23% BUY @ 128.07 SELL @ 128.37
Type: 3 TRADE: EBAY BUY GAIN: -0.15% BUY @ 33.00 SELL @ 32.95
Type: 3 TRADE: MCHP BUY GAIN: 0.37% BUY @ 38.28 SELL @ 38.42
Type: 3 TRADE: LIFE BUY GAIN: -0.32% BUY @ 49.73 SELL @ 49.57
Type: 3 TRADE: DELL BUY GAIN: -0.79% BUY @ 17.80 SELL @ 17.66
Type: 3 TRADE: CA BUY GAIN: -0.26% BUY @ 26.60 SELL @ 26.53
Type: 3 TRADE: DIS BUY GAIN: 1.45% BUY @ 39.43 SELL @ 40.00
Type: 3 TRADE: GILD BUY GAIN: 2.40% BUY @ 53.41 SELL @ 54.69
Type: 3 TRADE: SRCL BUY GAIN: 0.81% BUY @ 86.20 SELL @ 86.90
Type: 3 TRADE: PAYX BUY GAIN: -0.37% BUY @ 32.07 SELL @ 31.95
Type: 3 TRADE: CERN BUY GAIN: 1.41% BUY @ 62.21 SELL @ 63.09
Type: 3 TRADE: BGU BUY GAIN: 1.23% BUY @ 74.58 SELL @ 75.50
Type: 4 TRADE: JNPR BUY GAIN: 2.78% BUY @ 21.94 SELL @ 22.55
Type: 4 TRADE: JOY BUY GAIN: 3.25% BUY @ 92.70 SELL @ 95.71
Type: 4 TRADE: AA BUY GAIN: 1.70% BUY @ 10.58 SELL @ 10.76
Type: 4 TRADE: XLF BUY GAIN: 0.96% BUY @ 14.59 SELL @ 14.73
Type: 4 TRADE: IXN BUY GAIN: 0.39% BUY @ 64.15 SELL @ 64.40
Type: 4 TRADE: AMAT BUY GAIN: -0.16% BUY @ 12.81 SELL @ 12.79
Type: 4 TRADE: GRMN BUY GAIN: 0.46% BUY @ 43.90 SELL @ 44.10
Type: 4 TRADE: ISRG BUY GAIN: 1.16% BUY @ 486.35 SELL @ 492.01
Type: 4 TRADE: APOL BUY GAIN: -0.81% BUY @ 52.84 SELL @ 52.41
Type: 4 TRADE: GE BUY GAIN: 0.11% BUY @ 19.00 SELL @ 19.02
Type: 4 TRADE: ADBE BUY GAIN: 0.47% BUY @ 31.70 SELL @ 31.85
Type: 4 TRADE: COST BUY GAIN: -0.76% BUY @ 86.01 SELL @ 85.36
Type: 4 TRADE: DD BUY GAIN: 0.02% BUY @ 52.00 SELL @ 52.01
Type: 4 TRADE: IWW BUY GAIN: 0.46% BUY @ 88.57 SELL @ 88.98
Type: 4 TRADE: ORCL BUY GAIN: -0.07% BUY @ 29.13 SELL @ 29.11
Type: 4 TRADE: T BUY GAIN: -0.07% BUY @ 29.97 SELL @ 29.95
Type: 4 TRADE: INTU BUY GAIN: 0.38% BUY @ 58.25 SELL @ 58.47
Type: 4 TRADE: BAC BUY GAIN: 2.35% BUY @ 7.66 SELL @ 7.84
Type: 4 TRADE: AMGN BUY GAIN: -0.47% BUY @ 69.61 SELL @ 69.28
Type: 4 TRADE: AXP BUY GAIN: 0.77% BUY @ 51.85 SELL @ 52.25
Type: 4 TRADE: ADP BUY GAIN: 0.20% BUY @ 55.40 SELL @ 55.51
Type: 4 TRADE: SIAL BUY GAIN: 0.78% BUY @ 70.22 SELL @ 70.77
Type: 4 TRADE: MSFT BUY GAIN: 0.43% BUY @ 30.11 SELL @ 30.24
Type: 4 TRADE: HD BUY GAIN: 0.78% BUY @ 44.82 SELL @ 45.17
Type: 4 TRADE: LOGI BUY GAIN: 1.84% BUY @ 8.16 SELL @ 8.31
Type: 4 TRADE: NWSA BUY GAIN: 0.42% BUY @ 19.20 SELL @ 19.28
Type: 4 TRADE: XLNX BUY GAIN: 0.96% BUY @ 36.57 SELL @ 36.92
Type: 4 TRADE: SPLS BUY GAIN: 0.82% BUY @ 14.65 SELL @ 14.77
Type: 4 TRADE: KFT BUY GAIN: 0.18% BUY @ 38.81 SELL @ 38.88
Type: 4 TRADE: ORLY BUY GAIN: 0.49% BUY @ 82.43 SELL @ 82.83
Type: 4 TRADE: XRAY BUY GAIN: -0.29% BUY @ 38.35 SELL @ 38.24
Type: 4 TRADE: MRK BUY GAIN: -0.34% BUY @ 38.50 SELL @ 38.37
Type: 4 TRADE: MMM BUY GAIN: -0.40% BUY @ 88.08 SELL @ 87.73
Type: 4 TRADE: HSIC BUY GAIN: -0.44% BUY @ 73.48 SELL @ 73.16
Type: 4 TRADE: PG BUY GAIN: -0.93% BUY @ 63.36 SELL @ 62.77
Type: 5 TRADE: CLF BUY GAIN: 0.15% BUY @ 75.01 SELL @ 75.12
Type: 5 TRADE: OTEX BUY GAIN: -0.16% BUY @ 60.91 SELL @ 60.81
Type: 6 TRADE: MDCO BUY GAIN: 0.05% BUY @ 21.89 SELL @ 21.90
Type: 6 TRADE: BBY BUY GAIN: -3.00% BUY @ 24.55 SELL @ 23.81 Protective Stop at: 23.81
Type: 6 TRADE: DDS BUY GAIN: 4.62% BUY @ 45.85 SELL @ 47.97
Type: 6 TRADE: URBN BUY GAIN: 0.00% BUY @ 27.68 SELL @ 27.68
Type: 6 TRADE: BIOS BUY GAIN: -3.00% BUY @ 6.80 SELL @ 6.60 Protective Stop at: 6.60
Type: 6 TRADE: RDEN BUY GAIN: -3.00% BUY @ 38.70 SELL @ 37.54 Protective Stop at: 37.54
Type: 7 TRADE: INFA BUY GAIN: 2.38% BUY @ 44.59 SELL @ 45.65
Type: 7 TRADE: IWP BUY GAIN: 0.30% BUY @ 60.84 SELL @ 61.02
Type: 7 TRADE: CNX BUY GAIN: -1.23% BUY @ 38.14 SELL @ 37.67
Type: 7 TRADE: IVW BUY GAIN: 0.24% BUY @ 71.48 SELL @ 71.65
Type: 7 TRADE: IWS BUY GAIN: 0.28% BUY @ 46.82 SELL @ 46.95
Type: 7 TRADE: TIBX BUY GAIN: 1.78% BUY @ 27.50 SELL @ 27.99
Type: 7 TRADE: ING BUY GAIN: 1.13% BUY @ 9.73 SELL @ 9.84
Type: 7 TRADE: THO BUY GAIN: 1.71% BUY @ 31.67 SELL @ 32.21
Type: 7 TRADE: PGI BUY GAIN: -0.63% BUY @ 9.55 SELL @ 9.49
Type: 7 TRADE: TROW BUY GAIN: 1.72% BUY @ 58.30 SELL @ 59.30
Type: 7 TRADE: IEV BUY GAIN: 1.31% BUY @ 36.61 SELL @ 37.09
Type: 7 TRADE: OVTI BUY GAIN: 1.35% BUY @ 15.56 SELL @ 15.77
Type: 7 TRADE: WAT BUY GAIN: -0.13% BUY @ 89.61 SELL @ 89.49
Type: 7 TRADE: EP BUY GAIN: 0.04% BUY @ 27.04 SELL @ 27.05
Type: 7 TRADE: M BUY GAIN: 1.40% BUY @ 35.62 SELL @ 36.12
Type: 7 TRADE: HSC BUY GAIN: 3.57% BUY @ 23.00 SELL @ 23.82
Type: 7 TRADE: GT BUY GAIN: 2.74% BUY @ 13.49 SELL @ 13.86
Type: 7 TRADE: SKX BUY GAIN: 3.15% BUY @ 12.68 SELL @ 13.08
Type: 7 TRADE: HLIT BUY GAIN: 0.16% BUY @ 6.38 SELL @ 6.39
Type: 7 TRADE: MEOH BUY GAIN: 1.64% BUY @ 28.59 SELL @ 29.06
Type: 7 TRADE: ELP BUY GAIN: -1.24% BUY @ 23.40 SELL @ 23.11
Type: 7 TRADE: CDNS BUY GAIN: -0.09% BUY @ 11.74 SELL @ 11.73
Type: 7 TRADE: XLI BUY GAIN: 0.59% BUY @ 37.04 SELL @ 37.26
Type: 7 TRADE: CSGP BUY GAIN: 1.93% BUY @ 58.10 SELL @ 59.22
Type: 7 TRADE: NOV BUY GAIN: 4.34% BUY @ 78.72 SELL @ 82.14
Type: 7 TRADE: BTU BUY GAIN: 0.03% BUY @ 37.98 SELL @ 37.99
Type: 7 TRADE: SPYG BUY GAIN: 0.39% BUY @ 61.74 SELL @ 61.98
Type: 7 TRADE: MKSI BUY GAIN: -0.83% BUY @ 32.44 SELL @ 32.17
Type: 7 TRADE: MOGA BUY GAIN: -0.07% BUY @ 45.00 SELL @ 44.97
Type: 7 TRADE: RHI BUY GAIN: 2.99% BUY @ 28.74 SELL @ 29.60
Type: 7 TRADE: AON BUY GAIN: 1.95% BUY @ 47.14 SELL @ 48.06
Type: 7 TRADE: FDS BUY GAIN: 0.41% BUY @ 90.67 SELL @ 91.04
Type: 7 TRADE: GPS BUY GAIN: 1.07% BUY @ 21.48 SELL @ 21.71
Type: 7 TRADE: AMCC BUY GAIN: -1.42% BUY @ 7.75 SELL @ 7.64
Type: 7 TRADE: WHR BUY GAIN: 5.52% BUY @ 65.07 SELL @ 68.66
Type: 7 TRADE: RBC BUY GAIN: 1.45% BUY @ 60.75 SELL @ 61.63
Type: 7 TRADE: EWC BUY GAIN: 0.17% BUY @ 28.73 SELL @ 28.78
Type: 7 TRADE: VCLK BUY GAIN: 0.60% BUY @ 18.31 SELL @ 18.42
Type: 7 TRADE: PAAS BUY GAIN: 0.92% BUY @ 23.80 SELL @ 24.02
Type: 7 TRADE: GCO BUY GAIN: -0.25% BUY @ 62.77 SELL @ 62.61
Type: 7 TRADE: UBS BUY GAIN: 0.89% BUY @ 14.54 SELL @ 14.67
Type: 7 TRADE: CBT BUY GAIN: 0.58% BUY @ 41.70 SELL @ 41.94
Type: 7 TRADE: BPFH BUY GAIN: 2.27% BUY @ 8.82 SELL @ 9.02
Type: 7 TRADE: IYR BUY GAIN: 0.49% BUY @ 61.72 SELL @ 62.02
Type: 7 TRADE: XLP BUY GAIN: 0.00% BUY @ 32.48 SELL @ 32.48
Type: 7 TRADE: IR BUY GAIN: 2.18% BUY @ 36.72 SELL @ 37.52
Type: 7 TRADE: IYG BUY GAIN: 1.31% BUY @ 51.32 SELL @ 51.99
Type: 7 TRADE: IWB BUY GAIN: 0.50% BUY @ 74.40 SELL @ 74.77
Type: 7 TRADE: SFY BUY GAIN: 0.24% BUY @ 33.03 SELL @ 33.11
Type: 7 TRADE: WDR BUY GAIN: 2.46% BUY @ 28.90 SELL @ 29.61
Type: 7 TRADE: ELON BUY GAIN: 1.02% BUY @ 5.87 SELL @ 5.93
Type: 7 TRADE: RDC BUY GAIN: -2.48% BUY @ 37.54 SELL @ 36.61
Avg. Gain (All): 0.57% #equities: 153
Avg. Gain (# 1): 0.45% #equities: 7
Avg. Gain (# 2): 0.34% #equities: 31
Avg. Gain (# 3): 0.45% #equities: 20
Avg. Gain (# 4): 0.50% #equities: 35
Avg. Gain (# 5): 0.00% #equities: 2
Avg. Gain (# 6): -0.72% #equities: 6
Avg. Gain (# 7): 0.98% #equities: 52
4.4 Daily Results for Signal Type 1 PAIRS Trades
=================================================
The following Table shows the actual gain/loss for each of the Trading Pairs
that had been previously identified for the current day. When using Trading
Pairs, however, we 'always' make the trade, whether Long or Short, regardless
of what the QQQQ signal might have been. The reason for this is that Pairs
Trading 'should' be safer than trading individual equities, and additionally
we are interested in tracking the accuracy of Shorts and hedged trading pairs
(one Long and one Short), and these would not normally be tracked if we were
keying off the QQQQ signal (or some other Master Trading Switch).
The current statistics assume, however, that each Long trade is protected by
a Stop set -3% below the Open price, and that all Short trades are protected
by a Stop set +3% above the Open price.
In our current implementation, all Trading Pairs are constructed ONLY from
our Type 1 Signals (fully confirmed Voted Signals), and this is already
sufficient to produce a long list of candidate pairs.
The following Table is broken up into 3 subtables according to whether the
Trading Pair is a Long-only (BUY/BUY), Short-only (SHORT/SHORT), or Hedged
trade (BUY/SHORT or SHORT/BUY). An additional assumption is made that equal
dollar amounts are allocated to each equity so that their individual gains
and losses can be simply averaged. A future extension of this Pairs Trading
system will be to calculate more optimal equity ratios for each pair.
Actual Day's Performance Data
==============================
Pair Individual
Equity Pair Signals G/d Gain/Loss Gains/Losses
=========== =========== ====== ========= ==============
(1) === LONG Pairs: BUY/BUY ===
TNA /VRSN BUY /BUY 75.91 0.77% 1.76% -0.22%
MRVL /TNA BUY /BUY 64.26 0.55% -0.66% 1.76%
CTXS /TNA BUY /BUY 63.61 1.45% 1.15% 1.76%
IWM /VRSN BUY /BUY 57.69 0.18% 0.58% -0.22%
QCOM /VRSN BUY /BUY 52.45 -0.05% 0.11% -0.22%
CTXS /IWM BUY /BUY 50.58 0.87% 1.15% 0.58%
CTXS /VRSN BUY /BUY 50.54 0.46% 1.15% -0.22%
QQQQ /VRSN BUY /BUY 48.75 0.11% 0.44% -0.22%
CTXS /QQQQ BUY /BUY 47.84 0.79% 1.15% 0.44%
CTXS /MRVL BUY /BUY 45.95 0.24% 1.15% -0.66%
QCOM /TNA BUY /BUY 45.67 0.94% 0.11% 1.76%
IWM /TNA BUY /BUY 45.24 1.17% 0.58% 1.76%
QQQQ /TNA BUY /BUY 44.32 1.10% 0.44% 1.76%
IWM /QQQQ BUY /BUY 41.37 0.51% 0.58% 0.44%
MRVL /VRSN BUY /BUY 40.86 -0.44% -0.66% -0.22%
CTXS /QCOM BUY /BUY 39.84 0.63% 1.15% 0.11%
IWM /QCOM BUY /BUY 39.21 0.34% 0.58% 0.11%
IWM /MRVL BUY /BUY 37.90 -0.04% 0.58% -0.66%
QCOM /QQQQ BUY /BUY 35.83 0.28% 0.11% 0.44%
MRVL /QCOM BUY /BUY 34.22 -0.28% -0.66% 0.11%
MRVL /QQQQ BUY /BUY 33.91 -0.11% -0.66% 0.44%
(2) === Hedged Pairs: BUY/SHORT or SHORT/BUY ===
*** No PAIRS found in this Category
(3) === SHORT Pairs: SHORT/SHORT ===
*** No PAIRS found in this Category
4.5 Global Statistics for All Trades Grouped by Signal Types
=============================================================
H I S T O R I C A L T R A C K I N G D A T A
(since 7/17/09)
The following Report presents performance summaries based upon our published
history of stock/ETF daily 'picks', and separate data lines are shown for each
of the 7 types of signals that we are currently tracking. This information
is being used to determine: (1) which of the 7 signal types produce the highest
G/d ratio (annualized gain divided by maximum drawdown), (2) whether SHORT
trades are equally as profitable as Long trades, and (3) whether the current
strategy of trading ONLY when the QQQQ Voted Signal is a BUY or a SHORT is an
effective strategy or not. In considering #3, it might be more profitable to
trade based upon MTI value, MSI (Market Strength Indicator) values, our
Generalized Japanese Candlestick neural networks, or something else...
KEY:
====
Note 1: The 'Avg. Gain per trade' takes into account ONLY those market days
when we actually make trades, i.e., when the QQQQ Voted Signal is a BUY or a
SHORT. These figures combine both the Long and Short trades, and separate values
for BUY and SHORT trades are shown in the adjacent two columns.
Note 2: The 'Avg. Gain per BUY' only looks at days when BUYs are made, and it
averages the net gain or loss made for all BUY trades on those days, and these
figures are maintained by Signal 'Type'. The idea is to compare the 'Avg. Gain
per BUY' value with the 'Avg. Gain per SHORT' value to see how well our BUY
profits compare to our Shorting profits -- for each of our 7 signal Types.
Corresponding to the 'Avg. Gain per BUY' is the 'Avg. Accuracy per BUY'. This
shows the percentage of BUY signals for that 'type' that produced winning
trades for the day.
Note 3: The 'Avg. Gain per SHORT' only looks at days when SHORTs are made, and
it averages the net gain or loss made for all SHORT trades on those days, and
these figures are maintained by Signal 'Type'. Corresponding to the 'Avg. Gain
per SHORT' is the 'Avg. Accuracy per SHORT'. This shows the percentage of SHORT
signals for that 'type' that produced winning trades for the day.
Note 4: The 'Total Gain' counts ALL market days, even those on which no trades
were made (QQQQ Voted Signal = Cash). Since we base all statistics upon buying
(or shorting) at the Open, and Selling (or Covering) at the Close price, we
are always in cash on the 'off days'. This gain is compounded, and is thus not
equal to the 'Avg. Gain per trade' multiplied by the '# of days trades were
made'. Although these values don't account for commissions or slippage, they
represent the Actual percentage gains that might be realistically made if ALL
signals for the given TYPE were traded.
Note 5: The 'Annualized Gain' takes the 'Total Gain' values and annualizes
them to a full trading year. Since 'Total Gain' is maintained for all market
days -- even those days when we make no trades at all -- it is easy to
annualize.
Average Gain per Trade/BUY/SHORT Trading Portfolio Performance
======================================================= ===================================
Signal Avg. Gain Avg. Gain Avg. Acc. Avg. Gain Avg. Acc. Total Annualized Maximum
Type per trade per BUY per BUY per SHORT per SHORT Gain Gain Drawdown
===== ========= ========= ========== ========= ========== ======== ========== =========
All 0.04% 0.07% 52.53% -0.05% 45.14% 21.31% 7.88% -13.63%
# 1 0.04% 0.06% 54.14% -0.04% 46.09% 20.42% 7.57% -16.11%
# 2 -0.01% 0.02% 52.93% -0.10% 43.66% -9.31% -3.77% -24.72%
# 3 0.05% 0.05% 51.01% 0.06% 45.79% 29.89% 10.81% -12.47%
# 4 0.03% 0.07% 52.42% -0.09% 35.85% 17.30% 6.46% -12.46%
# 5 0.03% 0.05% 50.88% -0.02% 33.33% 13.64% 5.15% -26.89%
# 6 0.01% 0.00% 48.54% 0.04% 27.27% 0.15% 0.06% -31.12%
# 7 0.05% 0.07% 53.07% 0.00% 0.00% 30.14% 10.89% -15.35%
# of market days: 642; # of days trades were made: 572
4.6 Global Statistics for All Pairs Trades Grouped by G/d Range
=================================================================
The purpose of this subreport is to track the actual performance of all of
the Trading Pairs generated since tracking was initiated on 7/17/09. The
Pairs are grouped into 3 categories: LONG-only Pairs (BUY/BUY), SHORT-only
Pairs (SHORT/SHORT), and Hedged Pairs (BUY/SHORT or SHORT/BUY). Within each
Pair category, there are 5 breakdowns determined by the back-tested G/d values
associated with each Pair (G/d = Annualized Gain divided by Maximum Drawdown):
Top Pair Only Only the top (largest G/d) pair is traded each day.
All G/d Pairs All pairs within that category are traded each day
G/d >= 60.0 Only pairs having G/d values of 60.0 or greater are
traded each day.
60.0 > G/d >= 40.0 Only pairs having G/d values between 40.0 and 60.0 are
traded each day.
40.0 > G/d >= 20.0 Only pairs having G/d values between 20.0 and 40.0 are
traded each day.
Within each of the 5 G/d breakdowns within each of the three Trading Pair
categories, the number of historical trades is shown that were averaged
together.
Note that all trades were made with Protective Stops set at -3.0% for Longs
(Open price - 3.0%), and at +3.0% for Shorts (Open price + 3.0%).
At the present time our focus is on gathering data, and on learning which
types of Pairs Trades -- and which G/d value ranges -- produce the best
returns. We will eventually add the usual tracking parameters to this Table:
(a) total compounded gain, (b) annualized gain, and (c) maximum drawdown.
Avg.Gain # trades
G/d Range per trade averaged
================== ========= ========
(1) === LONG Pairs: BUY/BUY ===
Top Pair Only 0.34% 358
All G/d Pairs 0.43% 33583
G/d >= 60.0 0.21% 846
60.0 > G/d >= 40.0 0.40% 9069
40.0 > G/d >= 20.0 0.45% 23210
(2) === Hedged Pairs: BUY/SHORT or SHORT/BUY ===
Top Pair Only 0.00% 258
All G/d Pairs 0.01% 6268
G/d >= 60.0 0.00% 229
60.0 > G/d >= 40.0 0.00% 1685
40.0 > G/d >= 20.0 0.01% 4162
(3) === SHORT Pairs: SHORT/SHORT ===
Top Pair Only -0.25% 373
All G/d Pairs -0.26% 97088
G/d >= 60.0 -0.29% 3426
60.0 > G/d >= 40.0 -0.28% 22358
40.0 > G/d >= 20.0 -0.26% 63462
===============
END OF REPORT 4
===============
============ Forecast Reports ============
Report 1: Differential Signals
Report 2: Pairs Trading
Report 3: Voted Signals
Report 4: Day Trades
Report 5: Prediction Table
Report 6: Primary Indicators
Report A: Major Strategies
==========================================
================================================================================
FORECAST Report 5: Intra-Day Tactics Using MOS/MCS (as of the Close on 2/04/12)
================================================================================
The following two Tables have been extracted from the Report predtabl.htm, and
they share the common theme of using "signatures", plus the current MTI value,
in an attempt to predict how 3 key ETFs will Close based upon the morning's
Open price, or will Open tomorrow based upon today's Close price.
The "signatures" are based upon the changes in the prices of QQQQ, SMH, and
DIA, and in that specific order. The MOS (Market Open Signature) depicts how
QQQQ, SMH, and SPY 'opened' in comparison to the previous day's Close, and
the MCS (Market Close Signature) depicts how QQQQ, SMH, and SPY 'closed' in
comparison to the current day's Open. In Table I-A we use the MOS (which must
be determined at the market Open) to try to forecast what might be expected
to happen at the Close, and in Table I-B we look at the MCS (which we project
for the market Close) to try to forecast what might be expected to happen at
the next market Open.
The use of these Tables is still experimental, but the next logical step is
to use the probabilities to help decide whether to commit to a short-term
trade during the current day, or to keep a trade overnight.
Table I-A (extracted from predtabl.htm)
=======================================
Probabilities that QQQQ, SMH, and SPY will close higher based upon the MOS
(Market Open Signature) value. The idea is to use historical values of the
MTI and MOS to determine the most likely outcome for QQQQ, SMH, and SPY
Closing prices.
MOS = (xyz) where x = '+' if QQQQ Opens higher than previous Close, otherwise '-'
y = '+' if SMH Opens higher than previous Close, otherwise '-'
z = '+' if SPY Opens higher than previous Close, otherwise '-'
Key:
====
CL>OP% Probability that the ETF will Close higher than its Open price
CL>CL% Probability that the ETF will Close higher than the Preceding Close price
MTI (MOS) #cases ETF CL>OP% CL>CL%
-------------------------------------------
1.35 (+++) 285 QQQQ 54.04% 71.58%
SMH 51.58% 67.02%
SPY 50.53% 73.68%
MTI (MOS) #cases ETF CL>OP% CL>CL%
-------------------------------------------
1.35 (++-) 41 QQQQ 68.29% 75.61%
SMH 60.98% 73.17%
SPY 75.61% 60.98%
MTI (MOS) #cases ETF CL>OP% CL>CL%
-------------------------------------------
1.35 (+-+) 50 QQQQ 50.00% 60.00%
SMH 52.00% 50.00%
SPY 48.00% 68.00%
MTI (MOS) #cases ETF CL>OP% CL>CL%
-------------------------------------------
1.35 (+--) 25 QQQQ 52.00% 64.00%
SMH 44.00% 36.00%
SPY 60.00% 44.00%
MTI (MOS) #cases ETF CL>OP% CL>CL%
-------------------------------------------
1.35 (-++) 15 QQQQ 80.00% 66.67%
SMH 66.67% 66.67%
SPY 73.33% 73.33%
MTI (MOS) #cases ETF CL>OP% CL>CL%
-------------------------------------------
1.35 (-+-) 42 QQQQ 61.90% 52.38%
SMH 45.24% 52.38%
SPY 64.29% 52.38%
MTI (MOS) #cases ETF CL>OP% CL>CL%
-------------------------------------------
1.35 (--+) 28 QQQQ 57.14% 57.14%
SMH 60.71% 53.57%
SPY 53.57% 57.14%
MTI (MOS) #cases ETF CL>OP% CL>CL%
-------------------------------------------
1.35 (---) 250 QQQQ 58.00% 40.00%
SMH 53.60% 32.40%
SPY 59.60% 40.00%
Table I-B (extracted from predtabl.htm)
=======================================
Probabilities that QQQQ, SMH, and SPY will Open higher on the following trading
day based upon the MCS (Market Close Signature) value at today's Close -- and
at the current MTI (Market Timing Indicator) value.
MCS = (xyz) where x = '+' if QQQQ Closes higher than today's Open, otherwise '-'
y = '+' if SMH Closes higher than today's Open, otherwise '-'
z = '+' if SPY Closes higher than today's Open, otherwise '-'
Key:
====
OP>CL% Probability that the ETF will Open higher than today's Close price.
There are two probabilities given that depend upon whether today's Close was
higher than today's Open (case 1), or today's Close was lower than today's
Open (case 2).
1:ETF Close > Open 2:ETF Close < Open
MTI (MCS) ETF (#cases OP%>CL%) (#cases OP%>CL%)
---------------------------------------------------------
1.35 (+++) QQQQ 257 50.19% 36 52.78%
SMH 261 46.36% 32 53.12%
SPY 250 44.80% 43 55.81%
1.35 (++-) QQQQ 30 66.67% 8 62.50%
SMH 31 54.84% 7 57.14%
SPY 16 56.25% 22 63.64%
1.35 (+-+) QQQQ 57 42.11% 11 36.36%
SMH 19 42.11% 49 55.10%
SPY 55 45.45% 13 69.23%
1.35 (+--) QQQQ 23 56.52% 6 66.67%
SMH 6 50.00% 23 56.52%
SPY 11 63.64% 18 55.56%
1.35 (-++) QQQQ 9 66.67% 12 58.33%
SMH 18 50.00% 3 0.00%
SPY 16 62.50% 5 40.00%
1.35 (-+-) QQQQ 4 25.00% 26 42.31%
SMH 20 55.00% 10 30.00%
SPY 3 0.00% 27 48.15%
1.35 (--+) QQQQ 9 55.56% 37 51.35%
SMH 6 50.00% 40 60.00%
SPY 30 40.00% 16 56.25%
1.35 (---) QQQQ 29 55.17% 181 62.98%
SMH 27 51.85% 183 58.47%
SPY 34 58.82% 176 62.50%
===============
END OF REPORT 5
===============
============ Forecast Reports ============
Report 1: Differential Signals
Report 2: Pairs Trading
Report 3: Voted Signals
Report 4: Day Trades
Report 5: Prediction Table
Report 6: Primary Indicators
Report A: Major Strategies
==========================================
===============================================================================
FORECAST Report 6: Primary Indicators and Signals (as of the Close on 02/03/12)
===============================================================================
The following Table shows all of our PRIMARY indicators, drawn from all
components of our System.
++/--/?? symbols are used to indicate whether the indicator (or CHANGE in the
indicator) is favorable for Longs (++), unfavorable for Longs (--), or
ambiguous (??). We utilize this Table to help us gauge the overall condition
of the market, and as a checklist to ensure that we don't overlook any
pertinent factor.
Indicator 02/03/12 02/02/12
-----------------------------------------------------
?? MutFnd MFTI: hold <-- hold
?? MutFnd Score: 8.21 <-- 7.82
?? GrailSys Buy%: 58.86% <-- 50.25%
?? 80+%Club Buy%: 48.48% <-- 48.39%
?? MTI (MktTim): 1.3500 <-- 1.2500
?? MktColorCode: ORANGE <-- RED
?? LSI/SSI: 6.88/ 0.24 <-- 6.21/ 0.76
?? TSI ("techs"): 28.6 <-- 28.0
?? Preproc. TOT: 294 <-- 296
?? Preproc. #L: 11 <-- 10
?? Preproc. #S: 0 <-- 0
?? #LongRawSigs: 5 <-- 4
?? NN1 (1-day): 5.66% <-- 0.71%
?? NN3 (3-day): -2.13% <-- -3.42%
?? NN8 (8-day): 1.75% <-- 3.38%
?? CNNI (avg.): 3.20% <-- 3.39%
?? QQQQ 5-day: ----- <-- -----
?? Prudent A.V.: ( 0, 0,100)% <-- ( 0, 0,100)%
?? AllocVec #0: ( 31, 0, 69)% <-- ( 28, 0, 72)%
?? AllocVec #1: ( 40, 60, 0)% <-- ( 35, 65, 0)%
?? AllocVec #2: ( 39, 61, 0)% <-- ( 32, 68, 0)%
?? Recommended: 0-31% LONG <-- 0-28% LONG
?? Preproc. L/1: 1 <-- 1
?? MRI Indicator: 0.05 <-- 0.10
?? PredTablSigs: ****/SS <-- */S
?? PredTablQQQQ: DN <-- DN
?? PredTablSMH: DN <-- DN
?? PredTablSPY: ?? <-- UP
?? PredTablDIA: DN <-- DN
++ VotedClA QQQQ: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA SPY: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA DIA: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA IWM: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA MDY: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA SMH: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA XLK: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA IYW: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA IXN: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA IYY: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA IYZ: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA IWZ: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA IWW: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA IBB: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClA IYJ: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB QQQQ: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB SPY: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB DIA: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB IWM: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB MDY: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB SMH: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB XLK: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB IYW: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB IXN: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB IYY: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB IYZ: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB IWZ: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB IWW: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB IBB: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClB IYJ: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC QQQQ: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC SPY: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC DIA: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC IWM: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC MDY: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC SMH: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC XLK: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC IYW: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC IXN: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC IYY: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC IYZ: BUY <-- BUY
++ VotedClC IWZ: BUY <-- BUY
?? VotedClC IWW: $$$$ <-- $$$$
?? VotedClC IBB: $$$$ <-- $$$$
?? VotedClC IYJ: $$$$ <-- $$$$
?? $NQ-RU: +/- <-- +/-
?? $NQ-SP: +/- <-- +/-
?? $NQ-DW: +/- <-- +/-
Definitions:
============
MutFnd MFTI Mutual Fund Timing Indicator (BUY/SELL/HOLD)
MutFnd Score (0=Hard Sell, 5=Hold, 10=Strong Buy)
GrailSys Buy% Percentage of 1000 Grail System equities in the BUY state
80+%Club Buy% Percentage of BUYS among Grail models with accuracies >= 80%
MTI (MktTim) Market Timing Indicator (calculated by Preprocessor)
MktColorCode Market Color Code (GREEN,BLUE,YELLOW,ORANGE,RED)
LSI/SSI Long Strength Indicator/Short Strength Indicator
TSI ("techs") Technical Strength Indicator ('tech' stocks)
Preproc. TOT Preprocessor Value: Total # of equities held LONG
Preproc. #L Preprocessor Value: # of new LONGs for tomorrow
Preproc. #S Preprocessor Value: # of new SHORTs for tomorrow
#LongRawSigs Preprocessor Value: # of 'Raw' (unvoted) Long Signals (0-10)
NN1 (1-day) Neural Network: 1-day projection for QQQQ
NN3 (3-day) Neural Network: 3-day projection for QQQQ
NN8 (8-day) Neural Network: 8-day projection for QQQQ
CNNI (avg.) Neural Network: Combined (avg.) n-day projection for QQQQ
QQQQ 5-day QQQQ 5-day 'Weather Forecast'
Prudent A.V. Prudent Asset Allocation Vector: (%Long, 0, %Cash)
AllocVec #0 Long/Cash Asset Allocation Vector: (%Long, 0, %Cash)
AllocVec #1 "Official" Asset Allocation Vector: (%Long,%Short,%Cash)
AllocVec #2 Aggressive Asset Allocation Vector: (%Long,%Short, 0)
Recommended Recommended LONG% Allocation Range (Prudent to Aggressive)
Preproc. L/1 Preprocessor L/1 Portfolio: 0 if NO holding; 1 if FULL
MRI Indicator MRI Indicator (negative values can portend major movements)
PredTablSigs Prediction Table (PREDTABL) Class 1/2 QQQQ Signals
PredTablQQQQ Prediction Table (PREDTABL) 'Probable' Direction of QQQQ (UP/DN)
PredTablSMH Prediction Table (PREDTABL) 'Probable' Direction of SMH (UP/DN)
PredTablSPY Prediction Table (PREDTABL) 'Probable' Direction of SPY (UP/DN)
PredTablDIA Prediction Table (PREDTABL) 'Probable' Direction of DIA (UP/DN)
VARPORT Buy% VARPORTA-G (Intermediate-Term) portfolios: Max Long%
"H" Buy% PORTSTAT (Grail System) portfolios: Avg Long% of "H" portfolios
"N" Buy% PORTSTAT (Grail System) portfolios: Avg Long% of "N" portfolios
"C" Buy% PORTSTAT (Grail System) portfolios: Avg Long% of "C" portfolios
"E" Buy% PORTSTAT (Grail System) portfolios: Avg Long% of "E" portfolios
"U" Buy% PORTSTAT (Grail System) portfolios: Avg Long% of "U" portfolios
VotedSigQQQQ Voted QQQQ Signal (from voteqqqq.htm report)
$NQ-RU Differential Signal (from diffhist.htm): QQQQ vs. IWM
$NQ-SP Differential Signal (from diffhist.htm): QQQQ vs. SPY
$NQ-DW Differential Signal (from diffhist.htm): QQQQ vs. DIA
$NQ-AU Differential Signal (from diffhist.htm): QQQQ vs. GLD (Gold)
===============
END OF REPORT 6
===============
============ Forecast Reports ============
Report 1: Differential Signals
Report 2: Pairs Trading
Report 3: Voted Signals
Report 4: Day Trades
Report 5: Prediction Table
Report 6: Primary Indicators
Report A: Major Strategies
==========================================
=============================================================================
FORECAST Report A: Portfolio/Strategy Directory (as of the Close on 02/03/12)
=============================================================================
The following Table organizes many of the more effective strategies supported
by the myriad reports of the Strategist Newsletter, and organizes them into
families and subfamilies of similar strategies. For each type of strategy,
the Directory points you to the Reports that are necessary to support that
strategy, and lists some examples of the 'best' specific strategy within
the subfamily. Symbolic names are used for families, subfamilies, and strategy
variations in order to facilitate future discussions and studies.
The 'top' strategy at the present time is considered to be E2PH:{QQQQ/DIA},
a high-performing, but conservative strategy that is fully hedged during weak
market conditions, and which trades QQQQ aggressively during strong market
conditions. E2PH:{QQQQ/SPY} runs a very close second in performance and safety.
Whenever it is clear that subscribers need further information in order to
choose the strategy that is best for them, or to actually 'run' the strategy,
then we will add more explanatory text -- or hyperlinks to more detailed
instructions. Please let us know what you need.
3 Fundamental Proprietary Techniques
====================================
The Schulenberg Stock Strategist System is constructed using 3 powerful and
unique mathematical modeling concepts:
1. MTI (Market Timing Indicator). The MTI is an accurate 'predictor' of the
strength of the market -- not just an estimate of its current strength, but
an indicator of short-term 'future' market strength. The MTI might also be
called the 'Market Temperature Indicator' because it is analogous to the
equations in Physics by which the temperature of a gas can be determined by
looking at the distribution of speeds (momenta) of gas molecults. Rather than
counting the number of molecules contained within various speed partitions,
however, we construct a spectrum of stock portfolios that vary in size, and
that have very special (and rather surprising) buy and sell rules. We then
gauge the temperature of the market by looking at the number of stocks that
are currently contained within each portfolio, as well as looking at the
overall 'curve' that is produced by looking across the spectrum of portfolios
from the smallest to the largest portfolios.
2. Generalized Japanese Candlestick Neural Networks. What we do here is to
convert the four prices for each day (Open, High, Low, Close) to a transformed
set of four dimensionless numbers -- rather than converting them directly to
Japanese candlesticks. We call this the RaDiSH Transform because the four
prices become the dimensionless and time-invariant R, D, S, and H parameters.
We then incorporate these 4 parameters with the previous 2 days of values,
throw in the recent time history of the MTI as well as some commodities
prices (gold, oil, etc.), and train a neural network to predict the price of
QQQQ 1 day in advance. What this effectively does is to find the Japanese
Candlestick patterns that actually have predictive power, and we obtain the
prediction -- without ever actually knowing what kind of a pattern had been
detected. Since the R, D, S, and H parameters are both dimensionless and
time-invariant, they produce neural networks that have predictive power not
only over QQQQ, but also over other stocks and ETFs -- and over wide ranges
of price histories.
3. Mutual Fund Timing Indicator. Our MFTI is constructed based upon our MTI
value, and it produces a mutual fund buy/sell signal that is not only highly
accurate, but that also switches (buy > sell, sell > buy) fairly infrequently.
Another proprietary idea, however, is that we develop a relative strength for
1000 different mutual funds by the following process:
a. Determine the current composition of each mutual fund by finding the
weighted sum of 5 ETFs (or key stocks) whose price history over the
past N market days most closely matches the actual price history of
the mutual fund. This is done by a Monte Carlo (Darwinian) process
and it generates surprisingly good results -- generally developing
decompositions into ETFs that match closely the stated 'objectives'
of the mutual fund.
b. Use the estimated composition of each mutual fund as a weighted sum
of equities for which we have timing signals, and then calcule a net
timing signal for the entire mutual fund. The resulting timing
information is contained within the MUTFUNDS.TXT report, and the
decompositions can be provided upon request (because of the size of
the decomposition report it is not included in the daily report archive).
I. E1 Work with 1 ETF exclusively.
=======================================
Method: We use our Voted Signals for each ETF, and these take into account not
only the recent price history for a particular ETF, but also factor in the
Voted Signals for related ETFs -- and for the market as a whole.
(1) E1LS Trade 1 ETF both Long and Short (we have over 20 ETF signals)
Relevant Reports: TRKVOTEB.TXT, ALLVOTES.TXT
Tracked by TimerTrac(TM): QQQQ, SPY, DIA, SMH, MDY, IWM
>>> Favorites: E1LS:QQQQ, E1LS:IWM, E1LS:SMH
See Forecast Report 3 for 2x and 3x ETF equivalents
(QLD, QID, SSO, SDS, DDM, DXD, ...)
Stops/Exits: See TRKVOTEB.TXT
(2) E1LO Trade 1 ETF Long-Only (more conservative)
Relevant Reports: TRKVOTEB.TXT, ALLVOTES.TXT
>>> Favorites: E1LO:QQQQ, E1LO:IWM, E1LO:SMH
Stops/Exits: See TRKVOTEB.TXT
II. E2 Work with 2 ETFs as a portfolio.
===========================================
Method (E2FH/E2PH): We construct a 'pseudo-ETF' whose price history is the
ratio of ETF1 to ETF2 (the quotient), and whose daily trading volume is the
harmonic mean of the two ETFs. We then generate a Voted Signal (utilizing
our MTI value and related Voted Signals) for this 'differential' ETF and
it accurately generates the BUY/SHORT or SHORT/BUY signals for the ETF pair.
Method (E2TP): We analyze all possible pairs of our 140 Voted Signals (this
is 9730 possible 2-equity portfolios), and we back-test all pairs over a
7 year trading history in order to determine the pairs that have the highest
G/d ratio (annualized gain divided by maximum drawdown). This analysis is
summarized in the STKPAIRS.TXT report. We then select the 20 best pairs of
ETFs, and we back-test these again, but this time varying the equity ratio
between the two ETFs in order to find the optimum percentages of ETF1 and
ETF2 that produce the maximal G/d ratio. This analysis is summarized in the
TRKPAIRS.TXT report.
(1) E2FH Trade 2 ETFs in a Fully Hedged fashion (ALL the time)
Relevant Reports: Forecast Report 1
>>> Favorites: E2FH:QQQQ/DIA, E2FH:QQQQ/SPY, E2FH:SMH/SPY
See Forecast Report 3 for 2x and 3x ETF equivalents
(QLD, QID, SSO, SDS, DDM, DXD, ...)
(2) E2PH Trade 2 ETFs in a Partially Hedged fashion
Relevant Reports: Forecast Report 1
>>> Favorites: E2PH:{QQQQ/DIA}, E2PH:{QQQQ/SPY}
See Forecast Report 3 for 2x and 3x ETF equivalents
(QLD, QID, SSO, SDS, DDM, DXD, ...)
(3) E2TP Trade 2 ETFs as a Trading Pair
Relevant Reports: Forecast Report 2, STKPAIRS.TXT,
TRKPAIRS.TXT, ALLVOTES.TXT
>>> Favorites: E2TP:IWM/SMH
III. En Work with a portfolio of 'n' ETFs.
=============================================
(1) En Trade 'n' ETFs as a portfolio
Relevant Reports: Forecast Report 2, STKPAIRS.TXT,
TRKPAIRS.TXT, ALLVOTES.TXT
Method: Use Forecast Report 2 to construct portfolios
of 3 ETFs (by selecting two Trading Pairs with an ETF
in common) or 4 ETFs (by selecting two Trading Pairs
with no ETFs in common). Use the Equity Ratios for the
Trading Pairs to determine the overall portfolio equity
ratios. Construct portfolios of 5 or more ETFs in a
similar fashion. Trade the portfolio by following the
signals in the ALLVOTES.TXT Report.
IV. S1 Work with a single stock.
====================================
Method: We use our Voted Signals for each stock, and these take into account not
only the recent price history for a particular stock, but also factor in the
Voted Signals for related stocks -- and for the market as a whole.
(1) S1LS Trade 1 stock both Long and Short (we have 120 stock signals)
Relevant Reports: ALLVOTES.TXT, TRKQSTKA.TXT, TKQ1STKA.TXT,
TKQ2STKA.TXT, TKQ3STKA.TXT, TRKDSTKA.TXT, TKM1STKA.TXT
>>> Favorites: S1LS:AMZN, S1LS:ATVI, S1LS:MSFT, S1LS:AAPL
also, S1LS:FAS(FAZ). Use TKM1STKA.TXT for tracking of
FAS, and TRKQSTKA.TXT for AMZN, ATVI, MSFT, and AAPL
Stops/Exits: See appropriate tracking report, e.g.,
TRKQSTKA.TXT.
(2) S1LO Trade 1 stock Long-Only (more conservative)
Trade only on BUY signals
Stops/Exits: See appropriate tracking report, e.g.,
TRKQSTKA.TXT.
(3) S1LOHZ Trade 1 stock Long-Only and only in the MTI High-Zone
(most conservative). Trade only on BUY signals and only if
the MTI is >= 1.0 (trading only on MTI > 1.0 signals would
result in protracted stays in Cash).
Stops/Exits: See appropriate tracking report, e.g.,
TRKQSTKA.TXT.
V. S2 Work with a pair of stocks as a portfolio.
=====================================================
(1) S2TP Trade 2 stocks, both Long and Short, as a Trading Pair.
Relevant Reports: STKPAIRS.TXT, ALLVOTES.TXT
Good Candidates: S2TP:ALTR/JNPR, S2TP:ALTR/VRTX,
S2TP:JPM/LRCX, S2TP:AXP/NTAP, ...
VI. Sn Work with a portfolio of 'n' stocks.
===============================================
(1) Sn Trade 'n' stocks as a portfolio.
Relevant Reports: STKPAIRS.TXT, ALLVOTES.TXT
Method: Use STKPAIRS.TXTE Report to construct portfolios
of 3 stocks (by selecting two Trading Pairs with a stock
in common) or 4 stocks (by selecting two Trading Pairs
with no stocks in common). Use an even equity distribution
that assigns equal funds to each stock. Construct portfolios
of 5 or more stocks in a similar fashion. Trade the
portfolio by following the signals in the ALLVOTES.TXT
Report.
VII. Mutual Funds (see MUTFUNDS.TXT Report and keep an eye on the Mutual
Fund Timing Indicator, MFTI).
==============================================
===============
END OF REPORT A
===============
============ Forecast Reports ============
Report 1: Differential Signals
Report 2: Pairs Trading
Report 3: Voted Signals
Report 4: Day Trades
Report 5: Prediction Table
Report 6: Primary Indicators
Report A: Major Strategies
==========================================