Schulenberg & Associates, Inc.: Schulenberg Stock Strategist™
Copyright(c) 2002-7, All Rights Reserved

P O R T F O L I O   P E R F O R M A N C E
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'Actual' Portfolio Performance (5/4/07-Present)

 This is one of fourteen major Reports that form our daily Strategist Newsletter™. The complete set of Reports consists of:

Report 1:  forecast.htm The daily Forecast (also emailed)
Report 2:  PREDTABL.TXT The Prediction Table (for QQQQ, SMH, SPY, and DIA)
Report 3:  MKTSTATS.TXT The Market Timing Report (contains ALL signals)
Report 4:  SIGNALS.TXT  The Grail System (short-term) Signals Report
Report 5:  PORTSTAT.TXT The Grail System Portfolios Report (50 portfolios)
Report 6:  PORTCORR.TXT The Grail System Portfolios 'Neutralization' Report
Report 7:  MUTFUNDS.TXT The Mutual Fund Performance Report
Report 8:  NEWPICKS.TXT The Preprocessor "Portfolios and Picks" Report
Report 9:  SECTION2.TXT The Intermediate-Term Signals Report
Report 10: VARPORTA.TXT The Intermediate-Term Portfolios
Report 11: diffhist.htm The Differential Signals Report (Back-Tested)
Report 12: voteqqqq.htm The QQQQ Voted Signal Report (Preprocessor Signals)
Report 13: portperf.htm The PORTSTAT Portfolio Performance Report (Back-Tested)
Report 14: portacts.htm The 'actual' portfolio performance for ALL 67 portfolios.

The following Table shows the recent performance of all 67 portfolios generated by our Strategist System. We offer three principal kinds of portfolios: (1) the Preprocessor portfolios (L/1-L/10) are generated by a very early stage in our System, and are intimately connected with the calculation of the MTI (Market Timing Indicator) value, (2) the PORTSTAT portfolios are stock (“H”,”N”,”C”) and ETF (“E”,”U”) portfolios generated from our Grail System (swing-trading) signals, and (3) the VARPORT (“A”-”G”) portfolios are generated from our intermediate-term signals (STAR signals).

This Table serves an additional purpose in reminding our subscribers of just how much material is provided each day in our numerous reports; in addition to the QQQQ Voted Signal Report (voteqqqq), and the QQQQ day-trading signal (PREDTABL), and the Mutual Fund report (MUTFUNDS), there are many different kinds (and sizes) of stock and ETF portfolios to address the diverse requirements of our subscribers. For example, the intermediate-term portfolios (VARPORTA-VARPORTG), and the associated intermediate-term signal report (SECTION2), are an under-appreciated part of our System. These are the closest thing we have to 'traditional' portfolios, and they generally provide excellent performance (especially since they are adjusted in size based on the prevailing MTI value).

The Portfolio Performance Table shows the following information for each Portfolio:

Portfolio Name (e.g., L/1, P10H, “A”)

REPORT file Name: the name of the Report file that gives details about the Portfolio

Total%: the total 'effective' percentage gain of the Portfolio since the beginning of tracking (5/4/07)

Day-by-day Gain% (g.gg%) and Fill% (fff%): g.gg%(fff%)

The recent (up to 4 days) history of each portfolio is shown by an entry of the format g.gg%(fff%). Since all of our portfolios consist of a fixed number of 'slots' (equal sized money allocations), and since not all slots will always be occupied by a stock or ETF holding on any given day, then it is necessary to show the Fill%, that is, the percentage of the portfolio's equity that is currently allocated to stocks or ETFs – and with the remaining slots held in cash. Thus, for example, if the P10H portfolio currently only has 6 holdings, then its Fill% (fff%) value will be 60%. The Gain% (g.gg%) is the the average gain or loss for all current holdings (the gains of each stock or ETF are summed and then divided by the number of holdings), and so the 'effective' percentage gain is this value multiplied by the Fill% (fff%). For example, the entry '1.20%( 50%)' shows that the average portfolio holding gained 1.20%, but since only half (50%) of the available money was invested, the effective gain is only 0.60% (1.20%*0.50). In other words, to find the 'effective gain' we need to multiply by the Fill% factor so that we account for money that is in cash.

The TOTAL% column allows direct comparisons of all 67 portfolios; this column shows the true total percentage gain or loss of the portfolio since the inception of tracking at the market Open on 5/4/07. It is calculated by summing the 'effective gains' for each day (Gain%*Fill%) since tracking was started. The daily effective percentage gains are simply added together, and thus we do not take into account the effects of compounding; because of compounding, true gains would be larger than those shown in the TOTAL% column.

*** Important Note: We have made a useful simplification to the tracking algorithm that eliminates a lot of complex logic, and minimizes the problems of ticker symbol changes and splits: we assume that all buys and sells occur at the Close price of the current day, rather than at the Open price of the next day (the earliest that a trade could actually be made based on our reports). As a result, our performance figures are only approximate; they will be quite accurate if an equity is held for a period of time, but will be slightly off if equities are bought and sold at higher frequencies (e.g., daily). Normally, things will even out with time; the price of a stock at the Open may be either higher or lower than the previous day's Close. During an uptrend, using the Close price will 'help' our BUYs, but 'hurt' our SELLs – and the situation is reversed if the market is declining. Over an extended period of time these performance figures should be reasonably accurate ... and certainly sufficient for making relative comparisons between two different portfolios.

If you are following one of these portfolios, and if you would like to increase the number of positions held, then you can add stocks or ETFS of your own choosing by looking at equities with a 'BUY' signal in the proper REPORT file. We do not recommend altering the contents of the Preprocessor portfolios because they are very finely tuned to the current MTI value, but if you wish to add a few stocks or ETFs to one of the Grail System portfolios (“H”,”N”,”C”,”E”,”U”) then you should look for high PPF (Predicted Performance Factor) equities listed in the SIGNALS report. Since the “E” and “U” portfolios are ETF-only portfolios, it is best to select high PPF ETFs from the 100% Club, or the 95+% Club; the ETFs listed in these two sections of the SIGNALS report have unusually high back-tested trading accuracies. To add stocks to one of the intermediate-term portfolios (VARPORTA-VARPORTG), you should look at high PPF equities that are listed in the SECTION2 report. Once you add equities of your own choosing, of course, then you need to monitor the SIGNALS (or SECTION2) report to know when to sell. It is also important to try to adhere somewhat to either the Maximum Long% Allocation, or the Prudent Long% Allocation, so that you don't end up with excessive 'long' exposure.

Port   REPORT      TOTAL%     03/20/08       03/19/08       03/18/08       03/17/08
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(Preprocessor Portfolios)
L/1    NEWPICKS     2.06%    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
L/2    NEWPICKS     5.35%    0.00%(  0%)   -2.33%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
L/3    NEWPICKS   -18.72%    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
L/4    NEWPICKS   -13.99%    0.00%(  0%)   -2.37%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
L/5    NEWPICKS    -6.83%    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
L/6    NEWPICKS     2.58%    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
L/7    NEWPICKS    -3.26%    0.00%(  0%)   -2.33%( 28%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
L/8    NEWPICKS   -10.53%   -0.22%( 12%)   -2.95%( 62%)    2.18%( 12%)   -1.26%( 12%)
L/9    NEWPICKS   -14.46%    1.90%( 33%)   -2.64%(100%)    2.84%( 55%)   -2.68%( 77%)
L/10   NEWPICKS   -12.72%    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
(Hedging Portfolios)
P1H    PORTSTAT    19.80%    9.99%(100%)   -2.56%(100%)    6.61%(100%)   -1.19%(100%)
P2H    PORTSTAT    -2.56%    4.93%(100%)   -3.83%(100%)    5.80%(100%)   -2.87%(100%)
P3H    PORTSTAT   -10.77%    4.26%(100%)   -2.95%(100%)    6.68%(100%)   -2.95%(100%)
P4H    PORTSTAT   -17.21%    3.42%(100%)   -3.37%(100%)    5.71%(100%)   -3.26%(100%)
P5H    PORTSTAT   -16.81%    3.56%(100%)   -3.17%(100%)    5.71%( 80%)   -3.26%( 80%)
P6H    PORTSTAT   -34.91%    3.39%(100%)   -4.21%(100%)    5.71%( 66%)   -3.26%( 66%)
P7H    PORTSTAT   -28.07%    3.39%( 85%)   -4.54%(100%)    5.71%( 57%)   -3.26%( 57%)
P8H    PORTSTAT   -25.47%    3.39%( 75%)   -4.69%(100%)    5.71%( 50%)   -3.26%( 50%)
P10H   PORTSTAT   -23.13%    3.39%( 60%)   -5.04%(100%)    5.71%( 40%)   -3.26%( 40%)
P12H   PORTSTAT   -21.48%    3.39%( 50%)   -4.25%(100%)    5.71%( 33%)   -3.26%( 33%)
P15H   PORTSTAT   -21.08%    3.39%( 40%)   -4.98%(100%)    5.71%( 26%)   -3.26%( 26%)
P20H   PORTSTAT   -22.51%    3.39%( 30%)   -3.80%(100%)    5.71%( 20%)   -3.26%( 20%)
(Normal Portfolios)
P1N    PORTSTAT    52.91%    9.99%(100%)   -2.56%(100%)    6.61%(100%)   -1.19%(100%)
P2N    PORTSTAT    26.26%   -0.50%(100%)   -3.83%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)   -2.87%(100%)
P3N    PORTSTAT    13.27%    5.83%(100%)   -0.90%(100%)    5.70%(100%)   -2.95%(100%)
P4N    PORTSTAT    20.43%    4.16%(100%)   -1.30%(100%)    5.85%(100%)   -3.26%(100%)
P5N    PORTSTAT    -2.16%    0.75%(100%)   -4.67%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)   -3.70%(100%)
P6N    PORTSTAT    -9.49%    1.39%(100%)   -5.14%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)   -3.36%(100%)
P7N    PORTSTAT    -0.68%    1.61%(100%)   -5.23%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)   -3.36%( 85%)
P8N    PORTSTAT     1.45%    1.61%( 87%)   -4.61%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)   -3.36%( 75%)
P10N   PORTSTAT     1.74%    1.61%( 70%)   -4.45%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)   -3.36%( 60%)
P12N   PORTSTAT    -5.31%    1.61%( 58%)   -4.31%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)   -3.36%( 50%)
P15N   PORTSTAT    -4.94%    1.61%( 46%)   -4.44%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)   -3.36%( 40%)
P20N   PORTSTAT    -6.46%    1.61%( 35%)   -4.80%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)   -3.36%( 30%)
(Conservative Portfolios)
P4C    PORTSTAT   -10.21%    4.59%( 25%)   -4.80%(100%)    5.90%( 50%)   -3.21%( 75%)
P6C    PORTSTAT   -10.89%    4.59%( 16%)   -5.91%(100%)    5.90%( 33%)   -3.21%( 50%)
P8C    PORTSTAT   -11.73%    4.59%( 12%)   -5.26%(100%)    5.90%( 25%)   -3.21%( 37%)
P10C   PORTSTAT   -14.53%    4.59%( 10%)   -5.76%(100%)    5.90%( 20%)   -3.21%( 30%)
P12C   PORTSTAT   -15.26%    4.59%(  8%)   -5.98%(100%)    5.90%( 16%)   -3.21%( 25%)
P15C   PORTSTAT   -14.65%    4.59%(  6%)   -5.34%(100%)    5.90%( 13%)   -3.21%( 20%)
P20C   PORTSTAT   -12.69%    4.59%(  5%)   -4.73%(100%)    5.90%( 10%)   -3.21%( 15%)
P25C   PORTSTAT   -13.31%    4.59%(  4%)   -4.73%( 80%)    5.90%(  8%)   -3.21%( 12%)
(ETF-only Portfolios)
P1E    PORTSTAT   -22.67%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%(100%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P2E    PORTSTAT   -15.98%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 50%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P3E    PORTSTAT   -19.90%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 33%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P4E    PORTSTAT   -14.81%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 25%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P5E    PORTSTAT   -11.89%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 20%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P6E    PORTSTAT   -12.89%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 16%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P7E    PORTSTAT   -11.23%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 14%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P8E    PORTSTAT    -7.97%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 12%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P9E    PORTSTAT    -7.20%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 11%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P10E   PORTSTAT    -5.63%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 10%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P11E   PORTSTAT    -4.87%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%(  9%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P12E   PORTSTAT    -4.79%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%(  8%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P15E   PORTSTAT    -3.36%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%(  6%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
(Ultra-conservative ETF Portfolios)
P6U    PORTSTAT     2.15%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 16%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P8U    PORTSTAT     1.98%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 12%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P10U   PORTSTAT     2.47%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%( 10%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P12U   PORTSTAT     1.53%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%(  8%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
P15U   PORTSTAT     1.89%    0.00%(  0%)   -3.77%(  6%)    0.00%(  0%)    0.00%(  0%)
(Intermediate-term Portfolios)
"A"    VARPORTA    -6.08%   -0.30%( 30%)   -3.44%( 30%)    1.96%( 30%)   -3.09%( 30%)
"B"    VARPORTB    -5.29%   -0.63%( 33%)   -4.22%( 33%)    1.70%( 33%)   -3.16%( 33%)
"C"    VARPORTC     0.11%   -0.05%( 33%)   -4.50%( 33%)    1.04%( 33%)   -3.08%( 33%)
"D"    VARPORTD     0.91%    0.82%( 30%)   -3.98%( 30%)    0.26%( 30%)   -3.26%( 30%)
"E"    VARPORTE     2.59%    0.82%( 33%)   -3.98%( 33%)    0.26%( 33%)   -3.26%( 33%)
"F"    VARPORTF    -1.01%    1.66%( 25%)   -2.18%( 25%)   -0.60%( 25%)   -2.61%( 25%)
"G"    VARPORTG     2.86%    1.66%( 33%)   -2.18%( 33%)   -0.60%( 33%)   -2.61%( 33%)